Is Solar Worth It in 2026? What Changed After the Federal Tax Credit Ended
The 25D federal credit ended for systems installed after 2025. Here is what now decides whether solar pays off, and how to estimate your own payback.
A south-facing solar array in Chicago produces about 1,308 kWh per kW of panels each year, according to NREL's PVWatts model. The average Illinois home uses about 697 kWh a month and pays 18.91¢ per kWh (12-month average). A 6.4 kW system sized to cover that use would cost about $16,448 at $2.57 per watt and save about $1,582 in the first year.
Our model estimates a payback of about 10.6 years. Over 25 years the system would save about $37,301, or $20,853 after its cost. The price you are actually quoted has a big effect on payback, so compare several quotes.
Savings assume the panels' output replaces electricity you would otherwise buy at the average rate. Your utility's rules for exported power (net metering or a lower export rate) can change the real figure.
The federal residential clean energy credit (Section 25D) does not apply to expenditures made after 31 December 2025, and for a solar system the expenditure is treated as made when installation is complete. That is why these estimates include no federal credit. State, utility and local programs may still be available: search the DSIRE incentives database (listed under Sources) for Illinois, and ask installers which programs they use.
When you buy panels, you pay up front or with a loan and keep all the savings. With a lease or power purchase agreement (PPA), a solar company owns the system on your roof; you pay a monthly fee or a set price per kWh, usually with little or nothing up front. Leases and PPAs need less cash but typically save less over time and can complicate selling your home, so read the contract carefully.
At $2.57 per watt, a 6.4 kW system sized for an average Illinois home would cost about $16,448 before incentives. Quotes vary by installer and roof.
Each kW of panels in Chicago produces about 1,308 kWh per year, according to NREL PVWatts.
About 10.6 years for an average home under our assumptions, with no federal tax credit.
The residential clean energy credit (25D) does not apply to expenditures made after 31 December 2025. Check DSIRE for state and local incentives.
The 25D federal credit ended for systems installed after 2025. Here is what now decides whether solar pays off, and how to estimate your own payback.
Divide your yearly kWh by production per kW to get system size, then by panel wattage to get a panel count. Worked examples and a roof-space check.
Owning, leasing or signing a PPA changes who gets the savings, who handles upkeep and what happens when you sell. Here is how they compare in 2026.
Net metering credits you for solar power sent to the grid, but export rates and credit rules vary by state and utility. Here is how it works.
A solar battery pays off mainly when export credits are low, evening rates are high or outages are common. Dated cost data and a quick decision checklist.
Solar is priced per watt. See the latest dated figures from Berkeley Lab and EnergySage, sample totals by system size, and what pushes prices up or down.
Questions about solar in Illinois
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